Super-sized El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February, study suggests

Nearly half a million people globally could lose their lives by February 2027 due to extreme heat driven by a record-strength El Niño, according to a report from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.

The analysis predicts 451,000 deaths between June 2026 and February 2027, exacerbated by existing global warming from fossil fuel pollution.

El Niño, characterized by an increase in global temperatures, is expected to elevate land temperatures by 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 Fahrenheit), resulting in 44% more days of extreme heat than usual.

This is anticipated alongside other extreme weather events like fires, floods, and droughts. Regions in the Global South will be most affected, with Nigeria projected to experience the highest death toll at 31,400, followed by Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil.

The United States is also among the top 20 countries affected, with an estimated 3,500 fatalities.

The report utilized peer-reviewed methodologies analyzing the relationship between temperature and mortality across over 24,000 regions, comparing projected deaths to historical averages from 1996 to 2025.

While the model’s death estimate is considered plausible, experts emphasize its purpose in raising awareness about the potential severity of consequences and the urgent need for preparedness.

The study was released promptly due to the rapid strengthening of El Niño, highlighting the necessity for immediate policy action to mitigate the anticipated fatalities. The study, pending peer review, was released early due to the rapid strengthening of El Niño.

A spokesperson from the Climate Impact Lab emphasized the urgency of the findings for policymakers, stating that timely action is crucial to prevent deaths during this El Niño cycle.

Suggested measures include implementing early heat warnings, health action plans, providing cooling and hydration centers, and expanding healthcare coverage.

Co-author Tamma Carleton noted that while improving emergency response and targeting efforts can save lives this year, there is a concern for the future.

As extreme temperatures become the norm over the next two decades, a constant state of emergency is undesirable.